Siper Bowl pick with analysis

sherwood · Feb 6, 2005

Playoff record 7-3
Y-T-D 49-33 (+28.68 units)

New England –7 over Philadelphia <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
It is easy to like the Eagles here. They have been one of the best teams in the National Football Conference since the turn of this century and after clearing what seemed like an insurmountable hurdle, they have finally made it to the dance. For all intents and purposes, they had a 14-game schedule after mailing in their final two games. In the meaningful games, Philadelphia went an impressive 13-1 and was clearly the class of its conference. They have a solid coaching staff, an excellent quarterback and were second only to Pittsburgh in points allowed. It would be foolish not to consider taking the seven points being offered with a team that has performed this well. That is only amplified when you look at Philly in the underdog’s role, which would be difficult to do this season, as they were never offered points except for the final two meaningless games. Prior to that however, the Eagles were an outstanding puppy, having failed to cover only 11 of their past 39 games when receiving points. It gets even better as a road dog with Philadelphia having covered 20 of 28 when taking road points and having failed only 15 of its past 53 road games overall. All very compelling. All very appealing. But ultimately, all very wrong.<o

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The New England Patriots are a stud. They didn’t come out of some marshmallow conference to get here. All they did was stonewall the most dynamic offence in the league to the tune of 20-3 before knocking off the 16-1 Steelers in Pittsburgh’s own backyard. The Patriots play in a tough division in a tough conference. Despite that challenge, they went an unheralded 14-2 in the regular season. That puts them at 33-4 their past two campaigns along with a 27-8-2 mark against the number. Conversely, the Eagles defeated the soft-bellied Vikings and the one-dimensional Falcons to get here. When Philadelphia stepped out of this powder puff conference, they were far from impressive. Against AFC opponents, the Eagles were crushed 27-3 by the same Steelers team that New England knocked off two weeks ago. In that loss, Philly was held to 23 yards on the ground and only 90 yards through the air. Prior to that, the Eagles needed overtime to defeat the inept Cleveland Browns. A narrow 15-10 win over the punch-less Ravens and that insignificant loss to the Bengals in the final week provided the other two out-of-conference contests. Some may think that this is comparing apples with oranges. We’d say comparing filet mignon with a decent hamburger is more like it. When we look at the NFC versus the AFC this past season, the class difference is clearly defined as the AFC held a commanding 44-20 advantage and an equally impressive 41-21-2 record against the posted line.<o

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Of course, much ado has been made of the Terrell Owens situation and it appears that the all-star receiver will suit up. While his presence has to be factored in, questions remain about his efficiency level. No matter what the case may be, if anyone can deal with all the T.O. hype, distraction and his abilities, Bill Belichick and his staff are incomparable in doing so. Belichick has shown how chameleon his teams can be. They watch you, they learn you and they adapt to you. They focus on your strength and they concentrate on shutting it down. If you beat them some other way, all the power to you. They know how to win and how to get into your head. The Eagles are green and that doesn’t refer to their uniforms. Donovan McNabb has played extremely well this season but he’s no Tom Brady. Brady is an unblemished 8-0 in his playoff career and combined with the great coaching of Belichick, Brady and the Patriots have managed to get on the scoreboard first in an incredible 25 of past 26 games. That has a way of playing on an opponent’s mind and they Patriots know it. They’ve been here. They know the landscape and they know what to do with it. There is no Cinderella story this season. No Panthers, no Ravens, no Bucs. Instead, we get two legitimate squads that deserve to be here. Unfortunately for the Eagles though, they become pumpkins when the clock strikes twelve. Play: New England –7 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5)

trench1978 · Feb 6, 2005

Sherwood,

That was a brilliant post. Thanks for the input and the best of luck to you.

You made a valid point in pointing out the vast differences in the level of play coming from each conference. The AFC has dominated the NFC in convincing fasion this season.

However, I fear that the Eagles may not have taken the games against AFC opponents as seriously as the games against NFC opponents simply because they mattered very little at the time they were played. If this is the case, their 2-2 record against AFC opponents could be slightly skewed. Pro bowl MLB, Jeremiah Trotter, hadn't started in any of the Eagles' games versus AFC opponents. While he is only one man, the numbers will show you how he has impacted the team's run defense.

Meanwhile, the Patriots looked equally as horrendous against the Steelers as the Eagles did. Yet, they went into the playoffs and blew out the Steelers largely due to the 3 interceptions that Big Ben tossed. These are the same 3 interceptions that he was NOT throwing during the first half of the regular season when the Steelers manhandled the Pats and Eagles in back-to-back weeks.

I think that the key to this game is how McNabb will be able to move the ball against the Patriots pass defense. I fully expect the Patriots to shut down the Eagles' running game. If this happens, then McNabb will need to move the ball on his own. They will need to rattle him early just like they did against Manning and Roth. I think the Colts had a shot of winning that game if Manning didn't play with his head down the whole game. He is the best player on that team and they needed his leadership and for him to be on his game. He didn't

Since the Steelers game in Week 8, they had different starting CBs. Here is a list of QBs the Patriots played since the Steelers game:

Marc Bulger
Drew Bledsoe
Trent Green
Kyle Boller
Luke McCown
Carson Palmer / Jon Kita
AJ Feeley
Ken Dorsey
Peyton Manning
Ben Roethlisberger

Other than Peyton Manning and maybe Roth, the QBs listed above vary in ability, but none stick out as having very impressive seasons. Some are better than others and, generally, they are a scattered group as far as ability goes.

Anyway, against the Patriots, those QBs averaged completing 20 of 33 passes (61%) for 232 yards and 1.3 TDs and 1.5 INTs. Overall, they shut down those opposing passers.

The big question is whether or not McNabb will play like a Drew Bledsoe or Kyle Boller against the Pats or whether he can play like a Marc Bulger, Trent Green, or Carson Palmer (all of whom had success against the Pats' defense). That will determine the outcome of the game, IMO.

Given McNabb's positive attitude, I think that he will find a way to not turn the ball over (which he's been doing all year long) and score points for the Eagles. Somewhere in the 17 to 24 point range.

These teams are SOOO even when looking at the numbers. However, there are 3 things that stick out:

1. McNabb has had a more productive regular season and post-season than Tom Brady has.

2. The Eagles have given up 6.3 yards per pass this year compared to the Patriots 6.9 yards per pass.

3. The Eagles have given up 37 sacks versus the Patriots 26.

Of course, the AFC was the far better conference, so the Patriots should have an advantage for that. Then again, if you look at the teams that they played and the time of year that they played them, their schedule isn't as big of a contrast as one would believe.

Good luck to all!!!